The study seeks to elucidate how climate change affects vector-borne diseases and aims to transform scientific evidence into public health policies.
Climate change is no longer just an environmental concern: its impacts are increasingly affecting the health sector. Diseases previously restricted to tropical regions are beginning to spread to temperate areas, altering the global risk map. To address this challenge, the Institut Pasteur de São Paulo (IPSP) is leading a cutting-edge study in Brazil on the relationship between climate and health, focusing on vector-borne diseases. The project is part of the Pasteur Network international initiative, which brings together more than 30 institutes in 25 countries, with the support of the Rockefeller Foundation and the Institute of Philanthropy of Hong Kong.
Led by Mauro César Cafundó de Morais, a postdoctoral fellow and data scientist, the research focuses on four major areas: heat waves and their impacts on health; the effects of extreme weather events; food and water security; and climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases, a priority in Brazil. The latter includes arboviruses already known to the Brazilian population—such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever—and diseases that require increasing scientific scrutiny. This is the case of Oropouche fever and West Nile virus, which have been detected in Ceará and Piauí, but have not caused outbreaks yet.
“Climate variables directly affect the survival and reproduction of vectors, increasing their ability to transmit diseases,” explains Morais. “The case of yellow fever is emblematic: although an effective vaccine is available, new areas of the country are at risk, which reinforces the need for constant surveillance.”
Scientific Challenges and International Collaboration – The study addresses one of the greatest challenges in data science applied to health: harmonizing data of different types and scales. Climate data collected in near-real time by NASA satellites and the European Copernicus program needs to be integrated with national health databases, such as DataSUS, which operate on a different timescale. The IPSP also uses citizen science platforms such as WikiAves and MapBiomas. While the former helps track migratory birds, potential intermediate hosts of viruses such as West Nile, MapBiomas provides information on land cover and use, including deforestation and fires. This data is crucial because altering natural ecosystems affects the distribution of mosquitoes and other vectors, increasing contact with human populations and inducing outbreaks.
“The scientific challenge lies in connecting different scales of climate and health data, ensuring quality and consistency so that they can be put to use,” says the researcher. This complexity is being addressed in collaboration with institutions such as the Butantan Institute, Fiocruz, and Pasteur Network centers in Asia and Africa. The exchange of information has revealed surprising similarities: researchers in Vietnam and Brazil, for example, face similar challenges in combating dengue fever, creating opportunities for cooperation on a global scale.
From the lab to health policies – Currently in the data collection and analysis phase, the project will advance to the development of mathematical and machine learning models that can predict outbreaks with greater accuracy. These models could be integrated with existing systems, such as InfoDengue and InfoGripe, which generate risk alerts for health departments. “There is no vaccine against global warming, but climate data can help us anticipate public health decisions,” emphasizes Morais.
The study’s scope extends beyond academia: by January 2027, the researchers expectat to publish not only scientific articles, but also practical recommendations — the so-called white papers — to inform policymakers and optimize the use of SUS resources in the face of the new climate change challenges.
One Health and Social Impact – The project’s approach aligns with the One Health concept, which integrates human, animal, and environmental health. In addition to arboviruses, IPSP researchers are also studying how climate change, social and ecological factors combine to increase the risk of leishmaniasis in the Amazon.
“The knowledge produced in the academia must reach public policy. This is crucial to address the impact of climate change efficiently and equitably,” says Morais.