The partnership will develop models tailored to different areas of São Paulo and transform wastewater data into evidence to support public health decisions.
The Institut Pasteur de São Paulo (IPSP) and Insper formalized a research partnership on Monday (17) integrating wastewater-based viral surveillance, artificial intelligence, data science, and public policy. The agreement was signed at Insper in São Paulo after approximately a year and a half of discussions between teams from the two institutions.
The project builds on the influenza virus monitoring system implemented by IPSP in partnership with the São Paulo State Environmental Agency (CETESB). The data already make it possible to detect an increase in viral circulation one to two weeks before a rise in the most severe cases recorded by the healthcare system. Through the new collaboration, researchers will seek to turn this early signal into more accurate and useful forecasts for decision-making.
At IPSP, the research is led by virologist Rúbens Alves, coordinator of the Genomic Surveillance and Vaccine Innovation research group. At Insper, the initiative is led by Saylon Pereira, an associate researcher at the Center for Regulation and Democracy (CRD).
From early warning to outbreak forecasting — The proposal is to combine information on the presence and quantity of viruses in wastewater with data on severe cases, laboratory test results, vaccination coverage, urban mobility, and social indicators. Machine-learning models will be tested to understand how transmission dynamics vary across different areas of the city, taking into account factors such as population density, the movement of people, and access to healthcare services.
“We can already determine how far in advance the viral load in wastewater increases in relation to the rise in the number of cases. The next step is to turn this signal into a forecast. To do so, we need to integrate other variables and understand which models work best in each context,” Alves says.
In addition to improving predictive capacity, the partnership will investigate how the findings can be incorporated into public administration. The goal is to produce evidence that can help guide measures such as strengthening vaccination efforts, improving preventive communication, and preparing healthcare services before a rise in cases reaches hospitals.
“General-purpose models do not necessarily account for differences among the various areas of a city. We want to identify the key variables in each context and, based on them, assess which models offer the greatest predictive capacity and how this information can be incorporated into public policy,” Pereira explains.
The initiative also includes the development of a prototype interactive platform to make the data available and facilitate the use and testing of the models. The tools will follow open-source and open-science principles, enabling their use by the scientific community. The project also includes communication and audiovisual production activities to make the findings accessible to the public and engage with potentially affected communities.
Complementary expertise — During the ceremony, IPSP Executive Director Paola Minoprio emphasized that the partnership brings together complementary areas of expertise around a common goal. On one side is IPSP’s experience in epidemiological surveillance and the development of therapies and vaccines; on the other is Insper’s work in artificial intelligence and data science. According to Minoprio, this combination strengthens both institutions’ ability to develop innovative solutions that benefit public health.
Paulo Furquim, coordinator of Insper’s CRD, highlighted an important distinction of the partnership: it grew out of collaboration and joint work among the researchers themselves, rather than from a top-down decision by the institutions’ leadership. “The partnership already exists; it is alive. New knowledge is produced by people working together,” he said. According to Furquim, this origin provides a solid foundation for the collaboration and increases its potential for success, growth, and the involvement of new partners.
Yannick Samson, Attaché for Cooperation and Cultural Affairs at the Consulate General of France in São Paulo, described the agreement as an example of science diplomacy in action. According to him, the combination of IPSP’s and Insper’s expertise has the potential to produce tangible results for São Paulo and, in the future, for other urban settings.
About Insper: Insper is a nonprofit higher education and research institution dedicated to educating professionals and producing applied knowledge. Active in fields such as Business Administration, Economics, Law, Engineering, and Computer Science, it offers undergraduate, lato sensu and stricto sensu graduate programs, as well as executive education.
The institution seeks to combine academic excellence, interdisciplinarity, and engagement with real-world societal challenges, bringing together education, research, and professional practice. Its mission is to contribute to Brazil’s transformation by developing innovative leaders and advancing applied research.
Insper also maintains research centers and groups dedicated to a wide range of topics, as well as laboratories focused on development and experimentation. Internationally recognized for its academic excellence, Insper holds the three leading international business accreditations—the Triple Crown—and has cooperation agreements with more than 120 universities worldwide, expanding opportunities for academic exchange and collaboration.